Being diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) may bring up a host of worries, including what your future will look like. Statistics on the prognosis (outlook) for this condition are available, based on large groups of people who’ve had NMIBC. Your healthcare team can use these statistics to better understand how your type of cancer might progress or respond to treatment.

NMIBC is a general term for a few different bladder cancer types. “Non-muscle-invasive” means that the cancer has not spread past the lining of the bladder wall. This is different from muscle-invasive bladder cancer, which tends to grow and spread more quickly. Your specific cancer subtype, tumor grade (how abnormal the cancer cells look), and other risk factors all play a role in shaping your outlook.

In this article, we’ll look at general survival rates and what they mean for people living with NMIBC, the factors that influence those statistics, and steps you can take to support your health and improve your chances of a better outcome.

Understanding Cancer Statistics

Health agencies gather different kinds of statistics from people who’ve been diagnosed with cancer. It’s important to keep in mind that collecting this data takes time — often several years. Because of this delay, the numbers you see may not reflect the most current treatments now available. That’s why it’s helpful to check when the data was collected to better understand how relevant it is to today’s treatment options.

Here are a few of the most common statistics you might come across:

• One-year relative survival rate — Shows how many people are still alive one year after their cancer diagnosis, compared to people without cancer
• Five-year relative survival rate — Shows how many people are still alive five years after their diagnosis, compared to people without cancer
• Cancer-specific mortality — Indicates the number of people who die from a specific type of cancer in a year
• Recurrence-free survival (also called disease-free survival or relapse-free survival) — Refers to the length of time after treatment during which a person has no signs or symptoms of cancer

Survival Statistics for NMIBC

The relative survival rates, mortality, and risk of recurrence (when cancer returns) for NMIBC depend on the specific stage of bladder cancer and tumor grade. Your healthcare team will give you this information. They will also be able to give you the most accurate outlook for your condition.

According to the National Cancer Institute, the five-year relative survival rate for carcinoma in situ (CIS) of the bladder alone — when it hasn’t grown beyond the inner lining or occurred with other types of bladder cancer — is 97 percent. However, this figure doesn’t reflect the wide range of outcomes seen across different tumor stages and grades within NMIBC.

When bladder cancer hasn’t spread beyond the lining, five-year survival is nearly 97 percent. However, different risk factors may affect your outlook.

One study from 2023 looked at nearly 100,000 people with different NMIBC tumor stages and grades:

• Tis — Very early-stage “flat” tumors found in the bladder lining
• Ta — Early-stage tumors growing into the bladder lining
• T1 — Tumors growing into the connective tissue beneath the bladder lining

Researchers also separated the tumors into high-grade (more aggressive) and low-grade (less aggressive). They found that people with later-stage or high-grade tumors had a greater risk of dying from bladder cancer.

Following is the 10-year mortality rate among the study participants based on the type of tumor they had:

Read more about risk groups in NMIBC.

For the overall group, the relative survival rate at five years was about 90 percent. The survival rate was about 83 percent at 10 years.

How Often Does NMIBC Recur?

Studies have looked at how often NMIBC recurs after treatment. One study in 2024 looked at low-risk NMIBC, defined as Ta low-grade tumors. The researchers found that the median time it took for bladder cancer to recur was 89 months, or about 7.5 years. After one year, the recurrence rate was about 18 percent. The five-year recurrence rate was about 28 percent.

For high-risk NMIBC, the recurrence rate is higher. High-risk NMIBC is defined as high-grade Ta or T1 tumors, larger tumor size, and tumors that have already recurred. One analysis of different studies reported that the recurrence rate for high-risk NMIBC within five years ranged from 17 percent to 89 percent. The low end of recurrence occurred with groups of people who completed longer bladder cancer treatments. The high end of recurrence was found in people whose tumors had returned before, were larger in size, or appeared in multiple areas.

What Factors Affect NMIBC Survival and Outlook?

The biggest factors that influence survival and long-term outcomes in NMIBC are the tumor’s stage and grade. As discussed above, later-stage and higher-grade tumors are linked to lower relative survival rates and a higher risk of recurrence. But these aren’t the only elements your healthcare team considers when estimating your outlook.

In addition to the stage and grade of your NMIBC, factors such as your age and overall health, how your cancer responds to treatment, and genetic mutations in your cancer cells can all influence your prognosis.

Tumor Size

Tumor size is another important factor. On average, larger bladder tumors are linked to lower survival rates and a greater chance of recurrence. While there’s no universal definition of a “large” tumor, many studies and clinical guidelines define large tumors as those greater than 2 to 3 centimeters.

Your Age and Overall Health

In the 2023 study referenced above, age affected relative survival rate. Older age was associated with lower survival rate. Another 2021 study found that older age was also associated with a shorter recurrence-free survival.

In addition, having other health conditions — like heart disease or diabetes — can affect how well someone responds to bladder cancer treatment. Quitting smoking has also been found to improve outcomes for NMIBC.

Studies show that people who quit smoking have better outcomes with NMIBC.

How Your Cancer Responds to Treatment

One common bladder cancer treatment is transurethral resection of the bladder (TURBT), followed by intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy.

• TURBT is a procedure where a surgeon removes visible tumors from the bladder through the urethra.
• BCG immunotherapy involves placing a weakened form of bacteria directly into the bladder to help the immune system attack any remaining cancer cells.

If your bladder cancer is refractory, or resistant to treatment, your healthcare team may recommend additional treatments or more frequent monitoring.

Gene Mutations in Your Cancer Cells

Emerging research is beginning to identify the genetic factors that can affect if and how a particular cancer will grow and recur. One study from 2025 found that NMIBC tumors can have very different genetic mutations, which may affect how they grow, spread, or respond to treatment.

A subset of the NMIBC tumors studied was more prone to genetic change. This was associated with a higher risk of the cancer spreading and worse outcomes. More research is needed, but in the future, doctors may use this kind of genetic information to personalize treatment plans for NMIBC.

How Can You Improve Your Outlook With NMIBC?

Although many factors that affect bladder cancer outcomes are outside of your control, there are steps you can take to support your health and improve your outlook.

For example, it’s very important to stick with the bladder cancer treatment plan you and your healthcare team establish. One study from Japan found that people who followed their urology team’s treatment recommendations had lower recurrence rates of NMIBC.

Working with your healthcare team to treat and manage other health conditions may also help improve the outcome of NMIBC. Follow up with your oncology team if you’re having trouble sticking to your bladder cancer treatment regimen. They may also guide you on how to boost your overall health, such as helping you quit smoking. Eating a healthy diet and getting regular physical activity are also helpful ways to improve your outlook.

Talk With Others Who Understand

On MyBladderCancerTeam, the social network for people with bladder cancer and their loved ones, members come together to ask questions, give advice, and share their stories with others who understand life with bladder cancer.

Have you discussed your prognosis for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer with your cancer care team? Are there any steps you’re taking to try to improve your overall health and outlook? Share your experiences in the comments below, or start a conversation by posting to your Activities page.